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GeneratorChecker

Power Outage Risk in California

Wildfire-related Public Safety Power Shutoffs can begin with little notice and last 24-48 hours.

151 federal declarations in 10 years โ€” more than any other pilot state
NRI Risk Score
98.8 / 100
Very High
FEMA Declarations (2014-2023)
151 Major incidents
Highest Risk Window
Year-round

Wildfire and PSPS Preparedness

JanJunDec

What drives outage risk in California

Wildfire 96.8
FEMA Decl. 124
Winter Weather 38.0
FEMA Decl.
Hurricane 1.5
FEMA Decl.
Severe Storm N/A
FEMA Decl. 11

Why California is different

California is the only state where utilities intentionally cut power to prevent wildfires. Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric all operate Public Safety Power Shutoff programs under CPUC oversight. During the 2019 wildfire season alone, PG&E de-energized circuits affecting over 2 million customer accounts across dozens of counties. A single October 2019 PSPS event left roughly 941,000 PG&E customers without power for an average of 55 hours.

These shutoffs can arrive with limited advance notice and target Tier 2 and Tier 3 fire-threat zones, which span much of the Wildland-Urban Interface. PSPS events also coincide with peak wildfire smoke season. NREL research found that heavy smoke days can reduce solar panel output by 10% to 30% across the state.

For backup sizing, this creates a compounding problem: the grid goes down precisely when solar recharge capacity drops. Evacuation kits should prioritize portability and self-contained runtime over raw capacity.

Notable Recent Events

Camp Fire (2018)

Federal disaster declaration for wildfire that destroyed the town of Paradise and forced mass evacuations in Butte County.

Source: FEMA DR-4407

Dixie Fire (2021)

Federal disaster declaration for wildfire spanning multiple counties in Northern California.

Source: FEMA DR-4610

NRI score of 98.8 is the highest in this pilot, but Earthquake ranks as top modeled hazard while Fire drives 124 of 151 FEMA declarations.

Size your backup for California

Use both modeled hazard rankings and FEMA declaration mix to prioritize realistic outage scenarios.

MOST POPULAR

Evacuation grab-and-go

Lightweight portable kit for evacuation shelters or vehicle staging: medical, communications, and a laptop for coordination.

CPAP Machine WiFi Router Laptop

Load

491W

Target

8h

Minimum

6,500 Wh

Prioritize weight and portability. Check our best-for pages to compare station weights.

Size this scenario in calculator

PSPS home stay

Home backup during a planned Public Safety Power Shutoff: refrigeration, communications, and air circulation.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router Box Fan (20-inch)

Load

365W

Target

24h

Minimum

14,400 Wh

PSPS events can be extended without warning. Solar recharge adds resilience.

Size this scenario in calculator

Critical Note: No single portable power station in our database covers the full 8-hour baseline at this load (6,144 Wh max). Use solar recharge, load rotation, or expandable systems for longer events.

Data Sources & Methodology

NRI risk details

Composite score: 98.8 / 100

Rating: Very High

Top modeled hazards: Earthquake, Riverine Flooding, Wildfire

Hurricane score: 1.5

Winter Weather score: 38.0

Wildfire score: 96.8

FEMA declaration breakdown

Total (2014-2023): 151

Most recent: 2023-11-21 Hurricane

Type Count
Fire 124
Severe Storm 11
Flood 6
Earthquake 3
Biological 2
Hurricane 2
Dam/Levee Break 1
Tropical Storm 1
Winter Storm 1
Sizing formula

Required Wh = (Total Load W × Target Hours / Inverter Derate) × Safety Factor

Inverter derate: 0.70 (30% real-world loss)

Safety factor: 1.15

Rounding: Up to nearest 100 Wh

EAGLE-I outage-history metrics are currently pending for this pilot. Historical utility-reported and modeled data. Your experience may vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is outage risk in California?

California has an NRI composite risk score of 98.8 (Very High), with 151 federal declarations from 2014 to 2023. NRI score of 98.8 is the highest in this pilot, but Earthquake ranks as top modeled hazard while Fire drives 124 of 151 FEMA declarations.

What backup size should I target in California?

For the primary scenario on this page (Evacuation grab-and-go), the estimated minimum is 6,500 Wh for a 8-hour target. Refine this in the calculator with your actual devices.

Why do modeled risk and declaration history sometimes differ?

NRI is a modeled risk index based on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and expected loss. FEMA declarations reflect federally declared incidents. They answer different questions โ€” use both signals together for planning.

What are the most common outage-planning mistakes in California?

Assuming one power station can cover a long shutdown without load prioritization or recharge planning. See the common mistakes section above for more state-specific pitfalls.