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GeneratorChecker

Power Outage Risk in Texas

Summer heat waves and winter storms create a dual-season threat that can strain grid reliability.

37 federal declarations across 7 hazard types (2014-2023)
NRI Risk Score
91.0 / 100
Relatively High
FEMA Declarations (2014-2023)
37 Major incidents
Highest Risk Window
Jun-Sep

Heat and Severe Storm Reliability Stress

JanJunDec

What drives outage risk in Texas

Wildfire 83.5
FEMA Decl. 17
Winter Weather 80.0
FEMA Decl.
Hurricane 76.0
FEMA Decl. 4
Flood N/A
FEMA Decl. 7

Why Texas is different

Texas operates the only major power grid in the continental United States that is not interconnected with the Eastern or Western grids. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas manages electricity for roughly 26 million customers, covering about 90% of the state's electric load.

This isolation became the defining factor during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, when frozen natural gas infrastructure and surging heating demand triggered cascading failures. ERCOT ordered 20,000 MW of load shedding, the largest controlled blackout in U.S. history, leaving more than 4.5 million homes and businesses without power for up to four days.

The Texas grid faces a dual-season stress pattern: summer heat waves push cooling demand to record levels, while winter storms expose weatherization gaps that Uri revealed. Backup sizing in Texas cannot default to a single season. Planning should account for both extended summer cooling loads and multi-day winter heating scenarios where grid recovery may take significantly longer than in states with interconnected grids.

Notable Recent Events

Winter Storm Uri (2021)

Federal disaster declaration for severe winter weather causing widespread power outages and infrastructure disruption across Texas.

Source: FEMA DR-4586

Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Major disaster declaration for catastrophic flooding and wind damage, primarily in the Houston metro area.

Source: FEMA DR-4332

NRI top hazard is Heat Wave, but Fire leads FEMA declarations with 17 of 37 total โ€” a cross-signal worth noting.

Size your backup for Texas

Keep outage duration conservative, but add buffer for repeated summer events.

MOST POPULAR

Essential 12-hour backup

Core household loads for a short-duration event: refrigeration, medical support, and communications.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router CPAP Machine

Load

338W

Target

12h

Minimum

6,700 Wh

Covers most non-major weather events. Check surge compatibility for the refrigerator compressor.

Size this scenario in calculator

Extended seasonal event

Full critical-load bundle for a longer disruption, adding air circulation for comfort.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router Box Fan (20-inch) CPAP Machine

Load

421W

Target

24h

Minimum

16,700 Wh

For events beyond 24 hours, add solar or a second battery to extend coverage.

Size this scenario in calculator

Critical Note: No single portable power station in our database covers the full 12-hour baseline at this load (6,144 Wh max). Use solar recharge, load rotation, or expandable systems for longer events.

Data Sources & Methodology

NRI risk details

Composite score: 91.0 / 100

Rating: Relatively High

Top modeled hazards: Heat Wave, Tornado, Hail

Hurricane score: 76.0

Winter Weather score: 80.0

Wildfire score: 83.5

FEMA declaration breakdown

Total (2014-2023): 37

Most recent: 2023-04-21 Winter Storm

Type Count
Fire 17
Flood 7
Hurricane 4
Biological 3
Severe Storm 3
Severe Ice Storm 2
Winter Storm 1
Sizing formula

Required Wh = (Total Load W × Target Hours / Inverter Derate) × Safety Factor

Inverter derate: 0.70 (30% real-world loss)

Safety factor: 1.15

Rounding: Up to nearest 100 Wh

EAGLE-I outage-history metrics are currently pending for this pilot. Historical utility-reported and modeled data. Your experience may vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is outage risk in Texas?

Texas has an NRI composite risk score of 91.0 (Relatively High), with 37 federal declarations from 2014 to 2023. NRI top hazard is Heat Wave, but Fire leads FEMA declarations with 17 of 37 total โ€” a cross-signal worth noting.

What backup size should I target in Texas?

For the primary scenario on this page (Essential 12-hour backup), the estimated minimum is 6,700 Wh for a 12-hour target. Refine this in the calculator with your actual devices.

Why do modeled risk and declaration history sometimes differ?

NRI is a modeled risk index based on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and expected loss. FEMA declarations reflect federally declared incidents. They answer different questions โ€” use both signals together for planning.

What are the most common outage-planning mistakes in Texas?

Planning only for winter events and missing the impact of summer heat and severe storm clusters. See the common mistakes section above for more state-specific pitfalls.