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GeneratorChecker

Power Outage Risk in Vermont

Terrain-driven weather events and winter conditions create concentrated outage risk in rural areas.

17 federal declarations despite a lower NRI composite of 47.8 (2014-2023)
NRI Risk Score
47.8 / 100
Relatively Low
FEMA Declarations (2014-2023)
17 Major incidents
Highest Risk Window
Year-round

Lower Composite Risk, High Consequence Events

JanJunDec

What drives outage risk in Vermont

Winter Weather 68.3
FEMA Decl.
Hurricane 67.3
FEMA Decl. 1
Wildfire 21.0
FEMA Decl.
Severe Storm N/A
FEMA Decl. 7

Why Vermont is different

Vermont's outage risk is defined less by the grid itself than by the geography surrounding it. Green Mountain Power, the state's largest utility, serves roughly three-quarters of Vermont's customers. When Tropical Storm Irene hit in August 2011, the storm produced up to 11 inches of rain in 24 hours across the Green Mountains.

Rivers turned into floodways that destroyed over 500 miles of roadway and damaged or destroyed approximately 1,200 bridges and culverts. Thirteen communities were completely cut off, with no passable roads in or out. The National Weather Service documented nearly 50,000 power outages statewide. But the electrical grid was not the primary failure point. The real crisis was physical isolation: fuel deliveries, supply trucks, and utility crews could not reach stranded towns for days. Total costs from that single storm reached roughly 603 million dollars in federal outlays, 153 million in state and local expenses, and 63 million in insurance claims.

For backup sizing, Vermont's pattern inverts the usual calculus. The grid tends to recover fast, but road access does not. A portable station in a Vermont river valley needs enough stored capacity to operate independently until roads reopen, because resupply may not arrive for days.

Notable Recent Events

July Flooding (2023)

Federal disaster declaration for severe storms and flooding across Vermont, the most significant flooding event since Tropical Storm Irene.

Source: FEMA DR-4720

Lowest NRI composite in this pilot (47.8), but 17 federal declarations show that local impact can exceed what modeling predicts.

Size your backup for Vermont

Even in lower-risk states, size for essentials first and keep a realistic winter outage reserve.

MOST POPULAR

24-hour winter essential

Circulation fan, communications, and medical support during a winter outage.

Box Fan (20-inch) WiFi Router CPAP Machine

Load

214W

Target

24h

Minimum

8,500 Wh

Fan is for air circulation, not heating โ€” power stations cannot safely run resistive heaters.

Size this scenario in calculator

Extended cold snap

Add refrigeration to preserve food during a multi-day grid outage.

French Door Refrigerator Box Fan (20-inch) WiFi Router CPAP Machine

Load

421W

Target

48h

Minimum

33,300 Wh

Consider expandable systems or solar for events beyond 48 hours.

Size this scenario in calculator

Critical Note: No single portable power station in our database covers the full 24-hour baseline at this load (6,144 Wh max). Use solar recharge, load rotation, or expandable systems for longer events.

Data Sources & Methodology

NRI risk details

Composite score: 47.8 / 100

Rating: Relatively Low

Top modeled hazards: Landslide, Winter Weather, Hurricane

Hurricane score: 67.3

Winter Weather score: 68.3

Wildfire score: 21.0

FEMA declaration breakdown

Total (2014-2023): 17

Most recent: 2023-10-06 Flood

Type Count
Severe Storm 7
Flood 6
Biological 2
Hurricane 1
Severe Ice Storm 1
Sizing formula

Required Wh = (Total Load W × Target Hours / Inverter Derate) × Safety Factor

Inverter derate: 0.70 (30% real-world loss)

Safety factor: 1.15

Rounding: Up to nearest 100 Wh

EAGLE-I outage-history metrics are currently pending for this pilot. Historical utility-reported and modeled data. Your experience may vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is outage risk in Vermont?

Vermont has an NRI composite risk score of 47.8 (Relatively Low), with 17 federal declarations from 2014 to 2023. Lowest NRI composite in this pilot (47.8), but 17 federal declarations show that local impact can exceed what modeling predicts.

What backup size should I target in Vermont?

For the primary scenario on this page (24-hour winter essential), the estimated minimum is 8,500 Wh for a 24-hour target. Refine this in the calculator with your actual devices.

Why do modeled risk and declaration history sometimes differ?

NRI is a modeled risk index based on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and expected loss. FEMA declarations reflect federally declared incidents. They answer different questions โ€” use both signals together for planning.

What are the most common outage-planning mistakes in Vermont?

Skipping preparedness entirely because risk appears lower, instead of matching capacity to critical needs. See the common mistakes section above for more state-specific pitfalls.