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GeneratorChecker

Power Outage Risk in Utah

Utah's outage planning spans dense Wasatch Front continuity and longer-duration mountain or flood events that call for a separate 48-hour support model.

Salt Lake County alone accounts for 14,776 electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries, while Utah and Washington counties also clear the public BPI threshold, which means Utah combines metro continuity and mountain outages rather than behaving like a winter-weather-only state.

21 federal declarations in 10 years, with Salt Lake, Utah, and Washington as the strongest BPI intersections of storm frequency and medical-device density (2014-2023)
FEMA National Risk Index (NRI)
84.9 / 100
Relatively High
FEMA Declarations (2014-2023)
21 Major incidents
Highest Risk Window
Jul-Oct

Mixed Wasatch Front, Flood, and Mountain Outage Risk

JanJunDec

What drives outage risk in Utah

Wildfire 95.3
FEMA Decl. 15
Winter Weather 89.5
FEMA Decl.
Hurricane 0.0
FEMA Decl.
Biological Not scored by NRI
FEMA Decl. 2

Why Utah is different

A winter-only description is too narrow for Utah's actual outage mix. NOAA's statewide event record is led by thunderstorm wind, winter storm, flash flood, high wind, and heavy snow, which means the practical household case is broader than a cold-weather-only assumption.

The Wasatch Front carries the densest continuity burden. Salt Lake, Utah, and Washington are the top public BPI counties, while HHS emPOWER counts 46,725 electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries statewide with Salt Lake (14,776), Utah (6,138), Davis (4,667), Weber (4,528), and Washington (2,928) as the largest county totals. That supports a metro-first baseline rather than a sparse-mountain default.

Fire declarations still dominate Utah's federal record over the decade, but the most recent non-fire declaration is a better fit for Utah households statewide. DR-4752 covers flooding in 2023 and better matches the Wasatch Front plus mountain-duration outage mix than a fire-only label would.

Notable Recent Events

Utah Flooding (2023)

FEMA DR-4752 — flooding across Utah in spring 2023; a statewide event that reflects Utah's actual mix of Wasatch Front and mountain outages.

Source: FEMA DR-4752

Evidence trail

State source notes

These notes trace the editorial claims above back to FEMA, DOE, utility, or other cited records.

5 notes
  1. 1 OpenFEMA API

    FEMA declaration count (21) from OpenFEMA API, deduplicated by disaster number, DR/EM/FM types, 2014-2023; Utah's mix in this window includes Fire (15), Flood (2), Biological (2), Earthquake (1), and Severe Storm (1).

  2. 2 FEMA NRI county layer

    NRI composite score (84.9) from FEMA NRI county layer, population-weighted to state level; top modeled hazards are Wildfire, Earthquake, and Lightning.

  3. 3 NOAA Storm Events 2005-2024

    NOAA outage-relevant event mix is led by Thunderstorm Wind (1,665), Winter Storm (1,039), Flash Flood (990), High Wind (899), and Heavy Snow (862), with Tooele, Salt Lake, Washington, Grand, and Box Elder leading county counts.

  4. 4 HHS emPOWER + GeneratorChecker BPI review

    HHS emPOWER counts 46,725 electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries statewide; Salt Lake (14,776), Utah (6,138), Davis (4,667), Weber (4,528), and Washington (2,928) are the largest county totals. Salt Lake, Utah, and Washington are the top BPI counties in the GeneratorChecker cross-signal layer.

  5. Utah Flooding DR-4752 from FEMA disaster declaration records.

Structured FEMA NRI, HHS emPOWER, NOAA Storm Events, and EIA methodology is documented separately on the methodology page.

NRI's top modeled hazards are Wildfire, Earthquake, and Lightning, while NOAA's outage-relevant record is led by Thunderstorm Wind, Winter Storm, Flash Flood, High Wind, and Heavy Snow events..

Historical Storm Patterns in Utah

NOAA storm-event records filtered to outage-relevant event types for Utah. Counts reflect historical storm-event assignments, not confirmed utility outages.

Official data GeneratorChecker analysis

Analysis window

2005-01 to 2024-12

Included storm-event records

5,681

Source as of

2026-03

Included exact NOAA event types for Utah: Thunderstorm Wind, Tornado, High Wind, Strong Wind, Flash Flood, Flood, Winter Storm, Ice Storm, Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Blizzard.

Hazard seasonality

In this filtered NOAA record set for Utah, Jul has the highest monthly count (807 records) , and Thunderstorm Wind is the leading event type. This chart shows frequency in NOAA records, not how severe a specific outage may be.

Sorted Jan–Dec
Jan 446
Feb 473
Mar 538
Apr 364
May 367
Jun 518
Jul 807
Aug 768
Sep 427
Oct 192
Nov 256
Dec 525

Top outage-relevant event types

  1. 1. Thunderstorm Wind 1,665
  2. 2. Winter Storm 1,039

    775 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

  3. 3. Flash Flood 990
  4. 4. High Wind 899

    668 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

  5. 5. Heavy Snow 862

    499 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

  6. 6. Flood 143

    14 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

Counties with highest historical outage-relevant storm event frequency

  1. 1. TOOELE 689

    91.6% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  2. 2. SALT LAKE 364

    61.0% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  3. 3. WASHINGTON 359

    79.9% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  4. 4. GRAND 352

    34.7% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  5. 5. BOX ELDER 268

    67.5% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  6. 6. UTAH 247

    52.2% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

Coverage and limitations

Forecast-zone events in Utah are assigned to counties using the current NWS county crosswalk. Some forecast zones expand to multiple counties; unresolved legacy, coastal, and sub-county forecast zones fall into the excluded bucket.

Direct county match

49.5%

Mapped from forecast zone

15.7%

Not assigned to county ranking

34.9%

Unresolved forecast zones

23

  • Forecast-zone events with no current NWS county crosswalk entry are excluded from county-level rankings.
  • Forecast-zone events are mapped with the current NWS county crosswalk, which may not exactly match historical zone boundaries across the full analysis window.
  • Counts reflect historical NOAA storm event records, not confirmed utility outage counts.
  • Marine event types remain excluded from this state contract even when coastal impacts may be operationally relevant.

Medical Outage Sensitivity in Utah

County-level HHS emPOWER counts for electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries in Utah.

Official data

46,725 Medicare beneficiaries in Utah have claims associated with electricity-dependent medical equipment. (HHS emPOWER, 2026-03)

County-level HHS emPOWER records for this state. Medicare enrollment data only. 29 counties are included in this state snapshot.

Counties by total count

  1. 1. Salt Lake 14,776
  2. 2. Utah 6,138
  3. 3. Davis 4,667
  4. 4. Weber 4,528
  5. 5. Washington 2,928

Counties by share of Medicare beneficiaries

Counties with at least 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries
  1. 1. Uintah 19.3%
  2. 2. Duchesne 17.6%
  3. 3. Emery 17.4%
  4. 4. Carbon 17.1%
  5. 5. Sanpete 16.5%
GeneratorChecker analysis

Counties with higher concentrations may face elevated community-level demand for backup power during outages. This does not indicate individual medical necessity.

Limitations: Reflects Medicare beneficiaries with claims associated with electricity-dependent medical equipment. Does not capture non-Medicare or uninsured populations. HHS masks cells from 1 to 10 as 11.

GeneratorChecker BPI BPI v1.0 · NOAA 2005-2024 · HHS emPOWER 2026-03

Backup Priority Index in Utah

The GeneratorChecker Backup Priority Index is a county shortlist for backup planning, combining historically frequent outage-relevant storm activity with larger county counts of electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries. It is planning context, not a forecast or an outage guarantee.

Official data GeneratorChecker analysis

BPI version

v1.0

Analysis window

2005-01 to 2024-12

Matched counties

29

Counties qualify for the public BPI only when both signals land at or above the 80th percentile within the state. The shortlist excludes low-base medical counties and counties with less than 30% direct NOAA county matching.

Qualifying counties shown on the page: 3.

Top BPI counties in this state

Percentiles are computed within Utah only and are not comparable across states.

Source notes
  1. 1. SALT LAKE

    County FIPS 49035

    Storm frequency · Top 3% statewide Medical exposure · Top 1% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    14,776

    Storm-event records

    364

    Direct NOAA county match

    61.0%

  2. 2. UTAH

    County FIPS 49049

    Storm frequency · Top 17% statewide Medical exposure · Top 3% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    6,138

    Storm-event records

    247

    Direct NOAA county match

    52.2%

  3. 3. WASHINGTON

    County FIPS 49053

    Storm frequency · Top 7% statewide Medical exposure · Top 14% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    2,928

    Storm-event records

    359

    Direct NOAA county match

    79.9%

How to read the BPI

  • BPI qualifies a county only when both the NOAA outage-relevant storm signal and the HHS emPOWER medical-count signal are at or above the 80th percentile within the state.
  • The medical signal uses total county count of electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries, not the share of beneficiaries within each county.
  • Counties with weak direct NOAA county matching stay out of the public BPI list even when their storm percentile is high.
  • Percentiles are computed within each state only and are not comparable across states.
  • The BPI is a planning layer. It does not claim a forecast, a utility reliability score, or an individualized medical-risk assessment.

Size your backup for Utah

Use a 24-hour Wasatch Front continuity bundle first, then extend to 48 hours with heating-system support if the household sits in a colder or more outage-prone mountain area.

MOST POPULAR

24-hour Wasatch continuity

Primary Utah metro scenario: storm, flood, or localized outage across the Wasatch Front while refrigeration, communications, medical support, and work continuity remain the key loads.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router CPAP Machine Laptop

Load

698W

Target

24h

Minimum

27,600 Wh

This is the metro baseline for Salt Lake and Utah counties. It is intentionally broader than a winter-only bundle.

Size this scenario in calculator

48-hour mountain support

Extended Utah scenario: colder mountain or flood-affected outage where food preservation, communications, medical support, and a gas-heating blower all need to stay online.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router CPAP Machine Gas Furnace Fan (Blower)

Load

1396W

Target

48h

Minimum

110,100 Wh

This scenario adds heating-system support and does not model electric resistance heating.

Size this scenario in calculator

Critical Note: No single portable power station in our database covers the full 24-hour baseline at this load (27,600 Wh target vs. 6,144 Wh max in our current database). Use solar recharge, load rotation, or expandable systems for longer events.

Common mistakes in Utah

  • Treating Utah as a winter-only state when thunderstorm wind and flash flood sit near the top of the NOAA record.

  • Ignoring Salt Lake and Utah counties because fire declarations are more visible than metro continuity data.

  • Using electric-resistance-heating assumptions instead of a gas-heating blower for the extended scenario.

Top mistake: Buying for a generic winter outage when the more common Utah case is a mixed storm, flood, or wind event in the Wasatch corridor.

Data Sources & Methodology

NRI risk details

Composite score: 84.9 / 100

Rating: Relatively High

Top modeled hazards: Wildfire, Earthquake, Lightning

Hurricane score: 0.0

Winter Weather score: 89.5

Wildfire score: 95.3

FEMA declaration breakdown

Total (2014-2023): 21

Most recent: 2023-12-23 Flood

Type Count
Fire 15
Biological 2
Flood 2
Earthquake 1
Severe Storm 1
Sizing formula

Required Wh = (Total Load W × Target Hours / Inverter Derate) × Safety Factor

Inverter derate: 0.70 (30% real-world loss)

Safety factor: 1.15

Rounding: Up to nearest 100 Wh

Historical utility-reported and modeled data. Your experience may vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is outage risk in Utah?

Utah has an NRI composite risk score of 84.9 (Relatively High), with 21 federal declarations from 2014 to 2023. NRI's top modeled hazards are Wildfire, Earthquake, and Lightning, while NOAA's outage-relevant record is led by Thunderstorm Wind, Winter Storm, Flash Flood, High Wind, and Heavy Snow events..

What backup size should I target in Utah?

For the primary scenario on this page (24-hour Wasatch continuity), the estimated minimum is 27,600 Wh for a 24-hour target. Refine this in the calculator with your actual devices.

Why do modeled risk and declaration history sometimes differ?

NRI is a modeled risk index based on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and expected loss. FEMA declarations reflect federally declared incidents. They answer different questions — use both signals together for planning.

What are the most common outage-planning mistakes in Utah?

Buying for a generic winter outage when the more common Utah case is a mixed storm, flood, or wind event in the Wasatch corridor. See the common mistakes section above for more state-specific pitfalls.